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🌸 CLARITY Bill Committee passes 15:9: The toughest hurdle is cleared, but 60 votes are still needed Just yesterday we were discussing "whether it can enter Markup tomorrow," and today the result is out: 15:9, passed. This is the clearest victory so far in the legislative process of the CLARITY Bill. ‼️ Key information: ❶ The Senate Banking Committee voted 15:9 on Thursday to pass the CLARITY Bill ❷ All Republican members voted in favor, and Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego crossed party lines to support it ❸ The core goal of the bill: to provide a unified regulatory framework for the digital asset industry, clarifying the jurisdiction boundaries between the SEC and CFTC ❹ Next steps: Full Senate vote (requires 60 votes) → House review → President Trump signs into law 🔍 Quick science: Why does the full Senate vote require 60 votes? The U.S. Senate has 100 seats; ordinary legislation only requires a simple majority of 51 votes to pass. But any senator can initiate a "filibuster" to delay the vote indefinitely. To end prolonged debate and force a vote, a supermajority of 60 votes is needed. This means the CLARITY Bill still needs at least 9 Democratic senators to cross party lines in the Senate to truly reach the final vote. 💬 Will the CLARITY Bill get 60 votes in the full chamber? Stay tuned 👁 #CLARITY法案：委员会15:9表决通过

🌸 A signal that many people don't pay much attention to, but every time it erupts, it causes the global market to collectively turn sour, has lit up again today. Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 2.54%, the highest level since June 1997 — a figure not seen in nearly 29 years. ‼️ Key data: Japan 10-year government bond yield: 2.54%, highest since June 1997 USD/JPY: 157.419, yen weakening in sync Japan's long-term interest rates continue to climb, accelerating the Bank of Japan's monetary policy normalization process 🔍 Quick science: What is yen carry trade? For the past thirty years, Japan has maintained near-zero or even negative interest rates. Global institutional investors have thus developed a fixed operation: borrow low-interest yen → convert to higher-yield currencies like the dollar → invest in risk assets such as US stocks and crypto to earn the interest rate differential. This trade is extremely large, estimated to be in the tens of trillions of dollars. The problem is: once Japanese interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing yen increases, making this trade "unprofitable." Institutions will sell risk assets and buy back yen to repay — this process is called "carry trade unwinding," which can trigger linked selling pressure on global assets in a short time. 📌 Three perspectives on this new yield high: ❶ 2.54% is not just a number, but a signal of structural turning point Japan's farewell to the "zero interest rate era" is not overnight — but every new high in yields confirms this trend is real. When Japanese government bonds offer nearly 3% risk-free returns, domestic institutions (insurance companies, pension funds) will start reallocating overseas assets back to the domestic bond market. This is a slow-moving variable, but the direction is certain. ❷ USD/JPY at 157 proves carry trades have not yet been unwound on a large scale If carry trades were unwound massively, the yen should appreciate sharply (institutions buying back yen) — but with USD/JPY still at 157, it shows the market has not panicked to unwind positions, and carry trade exposure remains large. This means risk has not been released but is accumulating. ❸ The next trigger point: Bank of Japan's stance Every BOJ policy meeting and Governor Ueda Kazuo's speeches are potential triggers for carry trade unwinding. If the BOJ signals further rate hikes, USD/JPY at 157 could quickly reverse, putting global risk assets under liquidity pressure. 💬 How big do you think the risk of yen carry trade unwinding is now? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your judgment in the comments ⬇️

#特朗普再驳伊朗和平计划 👀 A good week starts with the troublesome old player. He's back, and so is the worst-case scenario. 📰 Trump announced that Iran's response to the peace plan is "unacceptable," and Iranian media subsequently confirmed that Iran has officially rejected the U.S. proposal—negotiations have reached a deadlock. This is the clearest sign of a breakdown in multiple rounds of talks. 📌 Three perspectives on this breakdown ❶ The four words "unacceptable" have closed all short-term negotiation windows. The last time the U.S. and Iran hit such a deadlock at the negotiating table, it was followed by escalated sanctions or military actions. The current question is not "when will negotiations resume," but "who will cave first under pressure." ❷ Oil price at $100 is a critical psychological threshold. $100 oil is the trigger line for global inflation expectations. Once it stabilizes and continues, with the Federal Reserve already at a 72.6% probability of "no rate cuts within the year," rising oil prices will further increase this probability. ❸ Lockdowns in the second half of the year = ongoing restructuring of the global energy supply chain. High and volatile energy prices will be the underlying theme of the global macro environment in the second half of the year. 🤔 Trump’s tough stance seems completely indifferent to the pressure of the midterm elections. Oil at $100 and rising energy bills have always been poison for election prospects—but he seems not to care at all. Is it true indifference, or is he confident that before Iran fully caves, voters will blame Tehran first?

⚠️ April Nonfarm Payrolls to be released tonight at 20:30 The market expects 62,000 new jobs added in April, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, and annual wage inflation rising from 3.5% to 3.8%. The numbers are low—but when interpreting this data, there is a new benchmark you must know. 🔍 Quick science: How to judge the "strength" of Nonfarm Payroll data? Traditional standard: Monthly increases below 100,000 are usually seen as a sign of labor market weakness. However, Fed official Logan previously stated publicly that currently, about 30,000 new jobs per month can achieve supply-demand balance—the benchmark has shifted. This means the expected 62,000 tonight is not actually a "collapse" under the new framework, but rather "weak but still acceptable." So the most important thing tonight is not the number itself, but its distance from the 30,000 and 100,000 lines. 📌 What to focus on tonight? ❶ Employment numbers: Above 100,000 → Strong employment, rate cut expectations pushed further out, USD strengthens, BTC under pressure Between 60,000–100,000 → In line with expectations, limited market volatility, status quo maintained Below 30,000 → Below Logan's "balance line," recession expectations rise, Fed forced to reassess, rate cut expectations quickly rebound ❷ Wage inflation: If the annual wage rate truly rises to 3.8% → Inflation pressure reignites → Even with weak employment, the Fed will find it hard to cut rates easily, deepening the dilemma 📊 How low are current rate cut expectations? 🔻 According to CME FedWatch data: Probability of a 25bp cut in June: only 5.2%; Probability of no cuts this year: 72.6% ⬇️ The rate cut window is at a recent low; tonight's data is the most important short-term repricing opportunity. What do you think will happen with Nonfarm Payrolls tonight?

#CLARITY Act: Finalized Stablecoin Yield Rules https://oyidl.me/ul/7lcuEOe 🌸 Following the finalization of the stablecoin yield rules a few days ago, things are progressing much faster than expected. This week, talks have already started about the bill entering committee next week. U.S. crypto legislation is visibly shifting from "discussion" to "execution." ⏰ Latest progress timeline: 🔹 Early May: Coinbase policy head announced a compromise with the Senate on the core dispute over stablecoin yields, officially restarting the bill 🔹 Consensus Miami: White House digital asset advisor Patrick Witt set July 4 as the target for House passage 🔹 Latest: Coinbase executives revealed the bill could enter the Senate Banking Committee markup as early as next week 🔹 Meanwhile: Brazil's central bank announced a ban on stablecoins for cross-border payment settlements starting October 1 🔍 Quick explainer: What is Markup? Markup is a key step in the U.S. legislative process—committee members review and amend the bill line by line, then vote on whether to send it to the full chamber for a vote. Entering markup means the bill has passed preliminary review and is officially in the legislative sprint phase. Reaching this stage usually means the sponsors have confirmed enough votes to support it. 📌 Three perspectives on this acceleration ❶ The July 4 target is no coincidence Independence Day carries full symbolic weight—the White House team setting this date as a goal is itself a political statement: crypto legislation is a priority agenda for this administration, not just talk. From "markup next week" to "House passage by July 4," the Senate’s review window is actually quite tight, meaning all parties are pushing under high pressure. ❷ Coinbase’s compromise solved the toughest issue Previously, the stablecoin yield clause was the biggest sticking point—the banking system feared stablecoins would become shadow deposits, siphoning off savings. Coinbase reaching a compromise with the Senate on this shows stakeholders have found a coexistence boundary. The bill’s restart is backed by genuine political consensus, not forced progress. ❸ Brazil’s ban vs. U.S. framework: global stablecoin regulation is splitting The U.S. chose "drawing red lines, building frameworks, and providing compliance pathways"; Brazil chose "directly banning cross-border settlements." Both approaches are being implemented this year, meaning stablecoin projects must choose between different jurisdictions. Compliance-focused stablecoins like USDC benefit under the U.S. framework; while stablecoin protocols targeting global cross-border settlements will face an increasingly fragmented regulatory environment. 💬 Do you think the CLARITY Act will pass before July 4? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments ⬇️#CLARITY法案最早下周进入审议

#Saylor plans to sell BTC to pay dividends 🌸 Saylor is about to sell coins: the six-year "never sell" belief is loosened for the first time. ☄️ Three key figures in this earnings report: 🔸 Holdings: 818,334 BTC · Average price: $75,537 · Q1 net loss: $12.5 billion 🔸 Main reason for selling: STRC preferred stock dividends + debt interest, with an annual fixed expenditure of about $1.5 billion; additional logic: selling can unlock $2.2 billion in tax savings. CEO Phong Le also confirmed that selling BTC for USD to manage debt is not ruled out. 🔸 This is the first official loosening of Strategy’s stance in six years. 🔍 Quick explanation: What is STRC preferred stock? Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) issued various preferred stocks to continuously finance BTC purchases, and STRC is one of them. Preferred stockholders enjoy fixed dividend priority—dividends must be paid on time regardless of company profits. If the company lacks cash, theoretically assets can be liquidated to fulfill obligations. The $1.5 billion annual burden Saylor mentioned is the accumulated result of these fixed obligations. 📌 How to view this "loosening" ❶ "Never sell" has shifted from belief to financial constraint As Strategy continues issuing preferred stock financing, fixed liabilities grow heavier—$1.5 billion/year in rigid expenses. This loosening is not a voluntary change of belief but forced by the balance sheet. ❷ $2.2 billion tax savings is the real catalyst Strategy may use a "sell and buy back" operation to convert unrealized losses on the books into actual tax-deductible losses while resetting the holding cost—this is a legal tax optimization under U.S. tax law. In other words, this sale might be a carefully designed financial maneuver rather than a true liquidation. ❸ Market impact: panic first, logic later 818,334 BTC holdings—selling even 1% means 8,000 BTC, which is substantial short-term market pressure. But if the sale is for a "sell and buy back" tax reset, the actual net outflow may be much less than the market imagines. 🎯 Impact on the crypto market ✅ Short term: emotional shock leads ✅ Medium term: actual selling pressure may be limited ✅ Long term: chain reactions warrant caution 💬 What do you think about Saylor’s "loosening" this time? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your judgment in the comments ⬇️

#BTC Hits New Highs Alongside US Stocks: Institutional Landscape Rewritten 🌸 On May 5th, several "firsts in many years" were refreshed — BTC, S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all reached new highs on the same day. The last time we saw such a scene was in 2021. It’s no longer just "crypto following the rise"; this is crypto sharing the historical stage with US stocks. 🔺 BTC broke $81,286**, reaching a new high since January 2026 🔺 S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all closed at historical highs on the same day, marking the first time since 2021 that all three indices broke through simultaneously. 🔺 Strategy holds 815,061 BTC, officially surpassing BlackRock's IBIT with about 814,000 BTC, becoming the world's largest single institutional holder of BTC 🔺 April's spot ETF monthly net inflow reached $2.44 billion, setting a new record for the strongest single month of the year 🔺 The probability of the CLARITY Act passing jumped from 46% to 64% 🔺 The earnings season for the Magnificent 7 exceeded expectations, and the FOMC's hawkish signals have been digested 📌 Three Perspectives on This "Simultaneous High" ❶ The correlation between BTC and US stocks has evolved from "following the drop" to "rising together" Over the past two years, the market has gotten used to the logic of "when US stocks drop, BTC drops first." But this time, four assets reached new highs on the same day — BTC's position in institutional allocations has fundamentally changed: it is no longer just a high-risk hedging tool, but one of the standard positions when risk appetite rises. With this step completed, the narrative has completely changed. ❷ Strategy surpassing IBIT is more significant than the numbers themselves 815,061 vs 814,000, the difference is just over a thousand, but the significance is: Saylor has pushed the world's largest asset management company's ETF down to second place using corporate balance sheets. The route of direct corporate holdings is forming real competition with the ETF route. The institutional BTC landscape is no longer an era of "just buy ETFs." ❸ The probability of the CLARITY Act jumped from 46% to 64%, accelerating legislation A short-term jump of 18 percentage points usually indicates substantial progress. Regulatory clarity + record high institutional holdings + record ETF inflows, these three signals resonate in the same direction, indicating a structural change, not just emotional. 🎯 Impact on the Crypto Market BTC hitting new highs alongside US stocks → Institutional risk appetite opens up → Funds concentrate on high liquidity assets → BTC siphoning effect strengthens, altcoins pressured in the short term Strategy surpassing IBIT → Corporate holding model validated by the market → More listed companies follow suit → BTC supply side continues to tighten Legislation probability jumps → Compliance framework accelerates formation → New institutional entry barriers lowered → Medium to long-term capital inflow increases 💬 After the non-farm payroll data comes out on May 8th, how do you think BTC will move? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your judgment in the comments ⬇️ PS: For more terminology explanations, see image one.

#CLARITY Act: Finalized Rules for Stablecoin Earnings 🌸 Finally, the wait is over. The stablecoin earnings dispute that has troubled Congress for over two years now has an official answer — it’s not a complete ban, but rather a subtle line has been drawn. On one side of the line is legal, and on the other side is illegal, and this line directly determines the life and death of DeFi and stablecoin issuers. ‼️ The core of the rules is just two sentences: ❌ Prohibited: Paying interest on deposits solely for "holding stablecoins" ✅ Allowed: Rewards linked to "real transactions or activities" (similar to credit card points) The compromise plan is expected to be submitted for formal review by the Senate Banking Committee in mid-May. 🔍 A little explanation: Why is there such a big difference between "interest" and "rewards"? Under banking law, "deposit interest" is strictly regulated — if stablecoins are classified as "substitutes for deposits that pay interest," the issuer is essentially operating a banking business and must be licensed. However, "transaction rewards" (like credit card points) do not fall under interest, and their legal nature is completely different. Once this line is drawn, stablecoin issuers just need to avoid directly saying "holding earns interest"; by linking rewards to activities, it becomes legal. 📌 Three perspectives on this red line: ❶ For centralized stablecoins (USDC/USDT): Substantial benefits The biggest uncertainty previously was whether stablecoin rebate programs from institutions like Coinbase would be cut off. Now that the rules are clear, "transaction-bound rewards" can continue, as long as they are not directly called "interest." Issuers now have a compliant path, and the structural legislative risk has decreased. ❷ For DeFi protocols: Need to cautiously restructure The on-chain stablecoin staking interest model (where you deposit USDC and the protocol gives you APY) may directly cross the red line — this is a typical form of "holding earns interest." Protocols like Aave and Compound need to reconsider their compliance structures or package earnings as "protocol activity participation rewards." The space for regulatory arbitrage has significantly narrowed. ❸ The timeline for the bill is accelerating, and the uncertainty itself is dissipating Entering the "launch phase" + formal review in mid-May means the probability of passing this year is quite high. For the entire stablecoin sector, having clear rules is itself a benefit — what institutions fear most is not strictness, but uncertainty. 🎯 Impact on the crypto market Rules implemented → Compliance costs for stablecoin issuers become manageable → Expansion of institutional stablecoins like USDC accelerates → The share of dollar stablecoins in global payment scenarios increases DeFi earning models under pressure → Compliance pressure on purely on-chain "holding earns interest" products rises → Funds migrate to regulatory-friendly platforms Smooth progress of the bill → The U.S. crypto legislative framework is basically taking shape → Lower compliance thresholds for institutional entry → Medium to long-term benefits for BTC and mainstream assets 💬 Do you think this line of "interest prohibited but rewards allowed" is reasonable? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments ⬇️

#美联储4月利率决议：罕见4票反对 👀 April 28-29 FOMC decision overview: 🔺 Federal funds rate remains unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% 🔺 4 dissenting votes, the most since 1992 🔺 Milan: voted for a 25 basis point rate cut (dovish) 🔺 Harker, Kashkari, Logan: retained expressions of easing bias in dissenting statements (hawkish) 🔺 Powell's term expires on May 15, will stay on as a board member; successor Waller awaits Senate confirmation 🔍 Quick Fact: Why are these 4 votes important? Under normal circumstances, FOMC votes are almost always consensus-based, with 1-2 dissenting votes being rare. This time, 4 votes indicate a fundamental disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the current policy path. 📌 Analyzing the "internal rift" ❶ Opposing directions of disagreement mean the market interpretation is extremely difficult. Dovish (Milan) says: It’s time to cut rates; the economy is already under pressure. Hawkish (Harker and others) say: Not even the words "easing bias" should be written; inflation risks are still present. Both sides have their reasons, which makes it even harder for the market to price in—who should we believe? The result is that BTC actually rose, because "staying put" at least ruled out the possibility of a rate hike, and the market interpreted the uncertainty as "temporarily safe." ❷ The countdown to Powell's departure is itself a variable. After May 15, with Waller taking over as chair, will the Fed's policy style change? Waller has a hawkish background, but his first test will be a complex situation with internal division, inflation, and recession expectations coexisting. Will the new official choose to be tough or soothe the market?