Postaus

#MayCPIHikeWatch May CPI drops tonight at 8:30 AM ET. Last inflation read before the June 16-17 FOMC meeting 👀 TD Securities forecasting headline at 4.2% YoY — up from 3.4%. Core at 2.8%. Reuters survey shows 70% of economists expect zero cuts in 2026. Goldman already pushed its first cut to 2027 and raised hike probability to 20% 📈 The market signal that's hard to ignore: despite Iran escalating, gold fell below $4,200 to a 3-month low. Markets are pricing "hot CPI → tighter Fed → stronger USD" over literal geopolitical conflict 💀 Rate fear is officially bigger than war fear right now 🫠 Two scenarios tonight: → CPI holds high: year-end hike expectations solidify further → CPI surprises below 3.5%: last gasp of oxygen for the cut narrative This is the number that sets the tone for FOMC next week and potentially the rest of the year 📊 How are you positioning into the print? Hold, trim, or actively trade the move? 👇