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#HormuzStrikeRiskOff When "Deal Is Close" Stops Moving Markets' Iranian drones downed a US Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours of ceasefire signals. Trump ordered a third round of strikes on Iran's air defense systems. The IRGC hit US Fifth Fleet assets in Bahrain and warned of escalation. By any historical standard, this should have sent risk assets into freefall. Instead: Nasdaq fell 3.5%, BTC briefly broke below $61K, and gold actually dropped under $4,200, a 3-month low. The headline says geopolitical shock. The market said: hot CPI matters more. There's something important buried in that reaction. Gold is usually the first trade when war risk spikes. It sold off. BTC dipped but didn't crater. Nasdaq fell, but the move looks more macro than fear-driven. Markets are pricing this conflict as a known unknown, not a genuine escalation shock. And there's probably a reason: Trump has claimed a deal is close more than 30 times since February. At some point, credibility on that signal runs out. The question worth asking isn't whether Hormuz escalates further. It might. The real question is whether geopolitical risk has been so thoroughly priced-in as noise that markets won't react until something genuinely systemic breaks. Is the market being rational here, or dangerously complacent? Share your thoughts in the comments 👇 $BTC $NVDA $MU