By 2035, quantum computers powerful enough to break Bitcoin- or Cardano-grade cryptography are unlikely.
Evidence:
Breaking ECDSA-256 via Shor’s algorithm needs ~10⁸ logical qubits; Google’s 2025 Willow has ~10² physical qubits.
Even with error correction, scaling demands millions of physical qubits and stable gates — decades away.
Peer-reviewed forecasts (e.g., arXiv:2009.05045, arXiv:2105.01815) put <20% odds of such capability before 2035.
So, Hoskinson’s “>50% within a decade” is optimistic; physics and engineering still disagree.
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